Importance of solar energy forecasting accuracy : case of a power plant in South Africa

29 mayo 2015

This 80 MW power plant, located in South Africa, is fitted with a single axis tracking system. The day-ahead solar power forecast delivered on May 29th, 2015 was of an excellent quality. Fortunately, because the stakes are high when it is question of selling on the market the energy produced by such a power plant.

Indeed, even with such a level of accuracy, the financial cost associated with the error of forecast would be in the order of  €100 for this single day and the double on May 30th. Over one year, it would generate a total cost over €35,000.00!

One can easily understand, then, the importance to rely on the most advanced technologies to minimize the gap between forecasts and actual productions. The use of unsuitable solutions might turn in additional costs exceeding €100,000.00, even €200,000.00 a year.


South Africa PV plant day-ahead forecast

In blue, the actual production, in orange the forecasted production the day before – May 29th and 30th, 2015