Trading of the Solar PV Production in France – How to Improve Risk Management?

April 24th, 2017

In France, the solar energy trading is becoming a reality. The energy can be negotiated for a delivery the next day (day ahead market) or for a delivery the same day (intraday market) up to 30 minutes before the actual delivery begins.
The forecasts provided the day before for the next day are generally of good quality. However, sometimes significant deviation may occur, as shown in the graph below, on April 24th, 2017.


Figure 1: Actual (in blue) vs day ahead forecasts supplied the day before (in red/orange for percentiles)


Using satellite images allows to update the forecasts every 15 minutes taking into account the cloud cover and dynamics. On an one hour ahead time horizon, the forecast is much more accurate than the one provided the day before, based on Numerical Weather Models.
Relying on this technology, one can participate in the intraday market in a much more profitable way by waiting the last moment to announce its production available for sale. The deviation between the forecast and the actual production as well as the associated costs are reduced to the minimum.
The risk management is also facilitated by using the confidence interval information (set of probabilistic forecasts – percentiles).


Figure 2: actual (in blue) vs SteadySat forecasts (in red/orange for percentiles) – 60 minutes ahead