Value added of intra-hour solar forecasting to anticipate solar production variability in Caribbean

February 5th, 2015

Day-ahead forecast (D+1) for a 200 kW plant in the Caribbean.

Day-ahead forecast - Carabean Island photovoltaic plant

When considering a 30 minutes timestep (power is averaged over a time resolution of 30 minutes), we see that the forecast made the day before, February 4, 2015, is of good quality.

Day-ahead forecast - Carabean Island photovoltaic plant-high resolution

When refining the time resolution – to one minute – it appears in the graph of strong intermittencies. The latter can in no way be taken in account by the meteorological models. To anticipate at very short term these sudden changes in solar power production, one should implement the SteayEye service which uses images captured on sites with a sky imager.