Introducing our new forecasting system
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Innovation
13/06/2023
by
Guillaume Tremoy
10 min
A game changer for solar and wind power forecasts
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We have some exciting news to share! Our team is thrilled to announce the launch of our new forecasting system, which promises to change the way you make use of weather and power forecasts. After three years of relentless efforts, our advanced system is now fully operational, and we can't wait to highlight why this new system is a game changer. In this article, we will delve into the key features that make our forecasting system stand out, including enhanced reliability, increased flexibility and autonomy, improved accuracy and risk assessment, live updates, and actionable decision-support tools.
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A Cloud-based one-stop shop solution available worldwide
One of the significant advancements in our new forecasting system lies in the increased reliability it offers. We have achieved this by leveraging a scalable cloud infrastructure capable of meeting the growing data needs of our clients.
Our system relies on a Google Cloud Platform (GCP) infrastructure for backend, databases, process orchestration, monitoring, dissemination and storage. GCP is one of the best cloud infrastructures, in particular regarding available technologies, worldwide availability, scalability, security and Service Level Agreement (SLA).
This Cloud-based approach ensures that our forecasts are delivered with a 99.7% guaranteed availability, without delay, providing a seamless experience and instilling confidence in the accuracy of the information you receive.
Being on Google's public cloud also brings high availability worldwide, given the distribution of access points around the globe.
Connection latency is optimized for all users, helping to improve overall service quality.
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Locations and network of the Google Cloud services (source: https://cloud.google.com/about/locations?hl=fr#network)
Locations and network of the Google Cloud services (source: https://cloud.google.com/about/locations?hl=fr#network)
Introducing our new forecasting system
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API is becoming a standard for the energy industry
Our commitment to providing you with the utmost flexibility and autonomy is further exemplified by the introduction of our new efficient API (Application Programming Interface). The API acts as a bridge between our forecasting system and your applications or systems.
With this API, you gain the power to integrate our forecasts seamlessly into your existing workflows, making it easier than ever to access and utilize the valuable information we provide.
The API's extensive functional scope empowers users to autonomously handle routine operations, including:
- Site configuration (solar and wind power assets).
- Aggregation of power plants (portfolio management).
- Retrieval of forecast data for a variety of parameters (weather, solar and wind power).
- Submission of actual weather and production data (for optimization and evaluation).
Discover more about APIs and their benefits for renewable energy forecasting here.
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Illustration of PV systems configured by API.
Illustration of PV systems configured by API.
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Improved Accuracy and Risk Assessment
We understand the critical role that accuracy plays when it comes to weather and power forecasts. To enhance the accuracy and confidence levels of our forecasts, we have implemented more advanced Physics-AI modeling techniques powered by a greater diversity of input data.
Major improvements have been made throughout the forecasting chain:
- Processing of heterogeneous data (Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), satellite imagery, in-situ observations) in a unique modeling chain, leveraging the wealth of information from diverse sources.
- Integration of 4 additional ensemble/deterministic NWP models into our existing pool of >10 global and regional models, to mitigate the occurrence of extreme errors and improve the overall accuracy of our forecasts.
- Multi-model combination, considering the performance levels of each model while taking into account their regional and temporal dependencies.
- Probabilistic forecasts using information from the dispersion of multiple models, outputs from successive runs and accounting for spatial uncertainties present in each model’s output.
- Improved satellite-based cloud nowcasting model (night time cloud detection, advanced optical flow and atmospheric radiative transfer).
- Enhanced post-processing techniques, including more efficient methods such as improved topographical and aerosol corrections, as well as statistical corrections such as the analog-based method.
Our system offers a comprehensive analysis that takes into account various factors influencing weather patterns and power generation. This improved accuracy ━ we have estimated an overall +5-10% gain in annual normalized Mean Absolute Error ━ empowers you to make informed decisions based on reliable forecasts, mitigating risks and optimizing your operations.
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Example of 24 hours ahead probabilistic GHI forecasts for 1 site in Western Europe during 5 consecutive days, as generated by our original system (top) compared with our new system (bottom).
Example of 24 hours ahead probabilistic GHI forecasts for 1 site in Western Europe during 5 consecutive days, as generated by our original system (top) compared with our new system (bottom).
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Timeliness is essential in the world of weather and power forecasting
Our new system provides improved real-time updates by leveraging the latest satellite-based and on-site measurement data. This means that any deviations or anomalies in the forecast can be quickly identified and corrected, ensuring that you have access to the most up-to-date and accurate information available.
With real-time updates (up to 1 per minute depending on measurement availability), you can adapt your strategies and plans swiftly, taking advantage of changing conditions and maximizing the potential of your renewable energy sources.
We can apply live corrections using on-site measurements for any weather, solar and wind power parameters, provided that you can supply us with high-quality and accurate data, received in a timely manner.
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Example of probabilistic GHI forecasts without (top) and with live correction (bottom) in clear sky (left) and cloudy (right) conditions
Example of probabilistic GHI forecasts without (top) and with live correction (bottom) in clear sky (left) and cloudy (right) conditions
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Actionable Decision-Support Tools
At Steadysun, we understand that information is only valuable if it can be translated into actionable insights. That's why our new forecasting system includes decision-support tools designed to make the information we provide more actionable and user-friendly.
These tools empower you to analyze the forecast data effectively, identify trends, and make informed decisions based on the insights gained. With intuitive visualizations and comprehensive analytics, you can unlock the full potential of our forecasts and drive your renewable energy initiatives forward.
Example of tailored confidence index accounting for the risk of thunderstorms around the region of interest (tropical island).
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What are the next steps now?
The launch of Steadysun's new forecasting system marks a significant milestone in the realm of weather and power forecasts. The enhanced reliability, flexibility, accuracy, live updates, and actionable decision-support tools offered by our system make it a true game changer for our valued clients. We are proud to bring you this cutting-edge technology, and we look forward to supporting your renewable energy endeavors with the most advanced forecasting capabilities available.
Looking ahead, we are excited about the continuous advancements and improvements that lie on the horizon. The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds immense potential for further refining our forecasting system. By harnessing the power of Deep Learning and Machine Learning techniques, we anticipate even greater accuracy and precision in predicting weather and power parameters, especially for intraday needs (nowcasting from 15 minutes to 6 hours ahead).
Furthermore, we are excited to announce that we are working diligently on a new, more user-friendly web interface. Our aim is to enhance the overall user experience, making it easier than ever to access and interpret the wealth of information provided by our forecasting system. The new interface will feature intuitive navigation, customizable displays, and interactive visualizations, allowing you to effortlessly generate, explore and analyze the forecasts. We are dedicated to continuously improving our services and ensuring that our clients have a seamless and enjoyable experience while utilizing our advanced forecasting capabilities.
Stay ahead of the curve with Steadysun and leverage the power of reliable weather and power forecasts to drive your success.
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Sign up to evaluate our forecasts for free today and see the difference it can make for your business!
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